Panel Discussion on the Economics of Enlargement

After a decade of stagnation, enlargement is back at the top of the EU agenda, driven by geopolitical necessity since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Drawing on lessons since 2004, this panel examines what a larger Union would mean for France and Europe: competitiveness, key sectors, climate alignment and EU budget redistribution.

As the European Union considers its next wave of enlargement, the economic debate in France and across member states remains deeply nuanced. While expanding the Single Market offers significant opportunities for cross-border trade, supply chain integration, and investment growth, it also raises critical questions regarding fiscal balance, industrial competitiveness, environmental and climate policy alignment and sectoral adjustment.

Building on lessons from previous accession cycles, including long-term data on regional GDP growth, trade flows, and foreign direct investment since 2004, this panel will examine the overall economic implications of EU enlargement, its impact on France and what we should expect in the future if another wave of enlargement is to occur.

Rather than viewing expansion solely through the lens of budget costs or market growth, the discussion will critically explore key structural questions, including market dynamics and competitiveness, impacts across sectors, fiscal changes, and potential budget shifts.

Therefore, the panel will explore the question of how French businesses and European industries can leverage an expanded market while navigating shifts in labour costs, production, and regional supply chains? What will enlargement mean for key domestic sectors, most notably agriculture, transport, and manufacturing, and what policy mechanisms are needed to manage competitive pressures? How will enlargement impact the EU's climate agenda, and what will be the cost of aligning candidate countries to EU environmental standards? And how will a larger Union impact the redistribution of EU resources, such as the Common Agricultural Policy and cohesion funds, for current and prospective member states?

REGISTRATION

Moderator

Tiago Antunes, Associate Senior Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations, and former Secretary of State for European Affairs of Portugal

Speakers

Milica Delević, Secretary General, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)

Jovana Marović, Former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for European Affairs of Montenegro

Jérôme Creel, Director of the Research Department, Institut français d'économie, and Associate Professor, ESCP Business School

Christophe Galand, Deputy Director, Head of Unit for Western Balkans – Regional Strategy & Investments, DG ENEST, European Commission

Organisers and partners

This event is organised by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in partnership with the Jacques Delors Institute, Sciences Po Alumni, Europa Experience and the European Commission's Directorate-General for Enlargement and the Eastern Neighbourhood (DG ENEST).